A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
